JAN. 18 2011
From 2000 to 2010, per capita taxes in Texas, including
property taxes, grew slightly faster than inflation (see
attached). The Consumer Price Index rose from 170.7 to
216.2, or 27%. Per capita taxes grew from $2,180 to
$2,993, or 37%. Over the decade, real per capita taxes
rose slightly from $2,180 to $2,195.
Selection of the endpoint year for this kind of calculation
can have a major impact on what the
data appears to show. 2009 and 2010 were part
of the steepest economic decline
in decades, and so their inclusion can throw off the
calculation if not kept
in context. For example, if the endpoint year
for the analysis had been 2008 rather
than 2010, the growth in per capita taxes
would have computed to 43% rather
than 37%. That is, the recession reduced tax
collections from 2008 to 2010, though population and inflation
were still positive over that span.
Even so, the tax system has produced a stable,
if unremarkable, amount of revenue per capita even
adjusted for inflation. See chart in the
attached. A linear fit of the
data produces a nearly perfectly flat line, sloping slightly
upward, even including 2009 and 2010,
slightly exceeding both inflation and
population over time.
JAN. 25, 2011:
Property tax is the largest, but if you pulled it out, sales tax
largest. Excluding property tax would give a different result, as
picking a different end-year. Real state taxes collections per
flat-to-rising through 2008, then fell off with the economy in
2010. Real per capita property taxes rose more steadily, finishing
decade 20% up, though through 2008, they had been up only up 11%.
Real state per capita taxes had risen 5% through 2008, then fell
finishing the decade at -15%.
JAN. 27, 2011:
The tax data, population, and CPI are from the Comptroller's
Combined, real per capita taxes rose 8% through 2008, and 1%