-------- Original Message --------
Subject: RE: People who moved to Texas from other states in 2010?
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2011 11:31:37 -0600
From: Lloyd Potter
To: Gardner Selby <wgselby@statesman.com>


As you nudged earlier, this covers 2008-09, showing the state population increasing 478,000. Are there are no comparable figures/estimates for 2009 to 2010?
There are not yet any published estimates of migration for 2009-2010.


The migration chart says 143,423 of 231,537 people who moved to Texas moved here from other states. Do I read that right?
Yes, you read it correctly.


So when Lt. Gov. Dewhurst said about 250,000 of 500,000 in added population reflects people moving here from other states, he's about right on the population gain, but he's off by about 100,000 on the number of additional residents traced to migration from other states. Do I misread any of this?
Yes, this statement would be close to correct for net migration into the State in 2008-09 and certainly correct if we look at the annual average number of migrants over the past 4 years (~260,000).  I think it’s possible, perhaps even likely, that he or his staff didn’t understand that the net migration number does include international migrants. Many people consume the net migration number without realizing this as it’s rarely reported when the number of migrants are reported and many assume that it is referring to domestic migration.


On 1/21/2011 10:01 AM, Lloyd Potter wrote:

...

The source of information on migration as a component of population change come from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates program.

The data can be found at this link: http://www.census.gov/popest/states/states.html.

Then go to the components of population change link to see the files.

 On 1/19/2011 4:55 PM, Lloyd Potter wrote:

I assume he was referring to the most recent data available for migration estimates which were for migration between 2008-2009. In that year, there were an estimated 231,539 net migrants in Texas.  If we speculate from a logical perspective about 2009-2010, the number is probably fairly close to 2008-2009 though may be down a bit because of the recession, probably hovering slightly above or a little below 200,000. 

  When I saw your email I found the text of his speech on the Texas Tribune website where he appears to say 200,000 migrants.

  All in all, his point, that a whole heck of a lot of people have been moving to the Lone Star State because of our economy would be unquestionably true. The number he used in his speech, while perhaps not on the money to the dime, seems close enough to me for the point he was making.